URussell: Ukwehla kwentengo ye-iron ore kufaneleka ngokuthuthukisa ukutholakala, ukulawulwa kwensimbi yaseChina

Isithombe sesitoko.

Insimbi yensimbi iyasheshahlehlaemasontweni asanda kwedlula kukhombisa futhi ukuthi ukuhlehla kwentengo kungaba nokungahlelekile njengokuchichima kwemibuthano, ngaphambi kokuba izisekelo zokuphakela kanye nesidingo ziphinde ziqinise.

Kuye ngokuthi iyiphi intengo yesithako sokwenza insimbi esetshenziswayo, intengo yehle phakathi kuka-32.1% no-44% kusukela inani eliphakeme kakhulu elifinyelelwe ngoMeyi 12 walo nyaka.

Ukwanda kwerekhodi kube nabashayeli ababalulekile, okuwukuthi ukuhlinzeka ngezingqinamba kwabahwebi abaphuma phambili e-Australia naseBrazil kanye nesidingo esinamandla esivela e-China, ethenga cishe u-70% wensimbi yensimbi etholakala olwandle emhlabeni wonke.

Kepha ukweqa okungama-51% enanini lensimbi ukuze lilethwe enyakatho neChina, njengoba kuhlolwe yisikhungo esibika amanani ezimpahla i-Argus, emasontweni ayisikhombisa ukusuka ngoMashi 23 kuya eqophelweni eliphezulu lika-$235.55 ithani ngoMeyi 12 lalihlale likhuphuka. kubi kakhulu kunezisekelo zemakethe ezifanele.

Isivinini sokuwa okulandelayo okungu-44% siye phansi kwakamuva kokungu-$131.80 ithani enanini lendawo futhi cishe asithethelelwa ngezinto eziyisisekelo, noma ngabe ukuthambekela kwezintengo eziphansi kunengqondo ngokuphelele.

Ukunikezwa okuvela e-Australia bekulokhu kuqinile njengoba umthelela wokuphazamiseka kwangaphambilini okuhlobene nesimo sezulu uncipha, ngenkathi ukuthunyelwa kweBrazil sekuqala ukuba phezulu njengoba umphumela wezwe ululama emiphumeleni yobhubhane lwe-coronavirus.

I-Australia isethubeni lokuthumela amathani ayizigidi ezingama-74.04 ngo-Agasti, ngokusho kwedatha yabahlaziyi bempahla u-Kpler, isuka ku-72.48 million ngoJulayi, kodwa ibe ngaphansi kwezinyanga eziyisithupha ukuphakama kwezigidi ezingu-78.53 ngoJuni.

I-Brazil ibikezela ukuthi izothumela amathani ayizigidi ezingu-30.70 ngo-Agasti, isuka ezigidini ezingu-30.43 ngoJulayi futhi ngokuhambisana nezigidi ezingu-30.72 zikaJuni, ngokusho kuka-Kpler.

Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwe-Brazil kwamanye amazwe kuye kwalulama kusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, lapho bekungaphansi kwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-30 njalo ngenyanga kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuMeyi.

Isithombe esithuthukayo sokuhlinzekwa kwempahla sibonakala enanini lezimpahla zaseChina, njengoba i-Kpler ilindele ukuba kufike amathani ayizigidi ezingu-113.94 ngo-August, okungaba irekhodi eliphakeme, idlula izigidi ezingu-112.65 ezabikwa yi-Customs yaseChina ngoJulayi wonyaka odlule.

I-Refinitiv inamandla kakhulu ekuthengisweni kwezwe laseChina ngo-Agasti, ilinganisela ukuthi amathani ayizigidi eziyi-115.98 azofika enyangeni, okuwukukhula okungama-31% uma kuqhathaniswa nenani elisemthethweni lezigidi ezingama-88.51 ngoJulayi.

Izibalo ezihlanganiswe abeluleki abafana ne-Kpler kanye ne-Refinitiv azihambelani ncamashi nedatha yezimpahla, uma kubhekwa umehluko lapho izimpahla zihlolwa njengezikhishiwe futhi zasulwa ngokwemithetho yentela, kodwa ukungqubuzana kuvame ukuba kuncane.

Isiyalo sensimbi

Olunye uhlangothi lohlamvu lwensimbi lwensimbi luwumkhiqizo wensimbi waseChina, futhi lapha kubonakala kusobala ukuthi umyalo weBeijing wokuthi ukukhiqizwa kuka-2021 akufanele kweqe irekhodi lamathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-1.065 kusukela ngo-2020 ekugcineni liyalalelwa.

Ukukhishwa kwensimbi engahluziwe kukaJulayi kwehle kakhulu kusukela ngo-Ephreli 2020, kwehle ngamathani ayizigidi ezingama-86.79, kwehle ngo-7.6% kusukela ngoJuni.

Isilinganiso esiphuma nsuku zonke ngoJulayi sasingamathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.8, futhi kungenzeka ukuthi sehle kakhulu ngo-Agasti, njengoba inhlangano yezindaba i-Xinhua esemthethweni yabika ngo-Agasti 16 ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwansuku zonke "ekuqaleni kuka-Agasti" bekungamathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.04 kuphela ngosuku.

Esinye isici okufanele siqashelwe ukuthi ukufakwa kwe-iron ore yaseChina emachwebeni kuphinde kwakhuphuka ngesonto eledlule, kwakhuphukela kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-128.8 ezinsukwini eziyisikhombisa kuya ku-Aug. 20.

Manje sebengamathani ayizigidi eziyi-11.6 ngaphezu kwezinga lesonto elifanayo ngo-2020, futhi bakhuphuka besuka endaweni ephansi yehlobo esenyakatho yezigidi eziyi-124.0 ngesonto kuya kuJuni 25.

Izinga elinethezeke kakhudlwana lezinhlu, kanye nethuba lokuthi zizokwakha ngokuqhubekayo uma kubhekwa isibikezelo sezulu esikhulu sika-August, esinye isizathu sokuthi amanani ensimbi yensimbi ahlehle.

Sekukonke, izimo ezimbili ezidingekayo zokudonsela emuva ensimbini yensimbi kuhlangatshezwane nazo, okuwukuthi ukukhuphuka kokunikezwa nokukhishwa kwensimbi eShayina.

Uma lezo zici ezimbili ziqhubeka, kungenzeka ukuthi amanani azongena ngaphansi kwengcindezi eyengeziwe, ikakhulukazi njengoba ekupheleni kuka-$140.55 ithani ngo-Agasti 20, ahlala engaphezulu kwebanga lentengo elingaba ngu-$40 kuya ku-$140 elalikhona kusukela ngo-Agasti 2013 kuya kuNovemba wonyaka odlule. .

Eqinisweni, ngaphandle kwesidingo esifushane sasehlobo ngo-2019, insimbi yensimbi yayingaphansi kuka-$100 ithani kusukela ngoMeyi 2014 kuya kuMeyi 2020.

Isici esingaziwa se-iron ore ukuthi yiziphi izinguquko zenqubomgomo i-Beijing engase yamukele, ngokuqagela okuthile kwemakethe ukuthi ompompi bokuvuselela kabusha bazovulwa kabusha ukuze kuvinjelwe ukukhula komnotho ukuthi kwehle kakhulu.

Kulokhu, kungenzeka ukuthi ukukhathazeka ngokungcola kuzobekwa endaweni yesibili ekukhuleni, futhi izigayo zensimbi zizophinde zinyuse okukhiphayo, kodwa lesi simo sisalokhu sisezindaweni zokuqagela.

(Kuhlelwa nguRichard Pullin)